If you take a look at my rankings, you'll know who you should take if it's a close call between two or maybe three players. That is just rankings so now let me explain myself on some of the close calls that you may encounter on draft day.
Sophomore Slumpers? - Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, or Robert Griffin III
If you go by fantasy production last year, the answer is easy. RG3. But, the points he put up last year may not be the case this year. Griffin's injury really has people concerned about his durability, but then again we saw Adrian Peterson come back from the same injury and make it through the whole year almost breaking Eric Dickerson's rushing yards record.
People think that RG3 is going to become like Michael Vick, where he has flashes of greatness but never be consistent or healthy enough to be a fantasy relevant starter. The Redskins are also a bit concerned about their franchise QB and have talked about limiting his mobility and make him pass the ball more. He has a great arm, don't get me wrong, but his big time fantasy production relies on his rushing yards and TDs.
Russell Wilson was loved by a lot of people coming into this fantasy season, but that hype has since died down. Most likely because of the news that Percy Harvin will be out for the majority of the season. You're right, he didn't have Harvin last year and did pretty well, but Harvin was reallyyyyyy going to help Wilson's fantasy stats this season. Now that Harvin is out, Wilson drops in my rankings a bit just because I don't know who is going to be reliable on the receiving end.
Andrew Luck is my guy to draft out of these top three sophomores. Luck threw for over 4,300 yards last year, most by a rookie in NFL history, and it is only going to get better from here. If you are in a dynasty league, Luck is an obvious pick, and if you are not in a dynasty league, he is still a great starting QB for your roster especially because you can wait on him. You can figure out your running backs and wide outs before you even have to worry about Luck being taken off the board. He has a veteran in Reggie Wayne to throw to along with the youngster T.Y. Hilton. They brought in Ahmad Bradshaw, so the committee between him and Vick Ballard should help open the passing game for Luck to thrive.
Third Year Guys - Cam Newton or Colin Kaepernick, and Andy Dalton or Jake Locker
The first decision I think is easy and it comes down to one thing for me. We have seen what Newton can do for two full years, and we have seen what Kaepernick can do for only half a year. Both are very good QBs and will be productive this year, but if you are trying to decide between Cam or Colin, be safe and smart and go Cam. It will pay off for you because Cam has a better arm, better legs, and more experience than Colin. Don't try to get cute and draft Kaepernick ahead of Newton because he might breakout even more than he did last season (half of a season). We have seen what Newton can do, we have reaped the rewards of having him on our team, and we possibly have been screwed because we played against Newton on a week he had 300 passing yards, 80 rushing yards, and 4 total TDs.
The second decision might be a little tougher than the first because we want to believe that Jake Locker (pick number 8 overall in 2011) can really live up to top 10 status. Phillip Rivers (drafted number 4 overall in 2004) never really broke out into an elite tier of QBs but we thought he would. Jake Locker could be heading towards the same fate Rivers had, average. Especially with his injury problems last year, who knows what he could be this year. The Titians helped him out a bit by drafted WR Justin Hunter, and they already have younger guys like Kenny Britt and Kendall Wright so their are pieces to the puzzle for success for Locker.
Dalton is already matured as a QB in the NFL. He has yet to hit the top tier, but he has what very few QBs have in this league. An elite wide receiver in A.J. Green. Aside from Calvin Johnson, Green is the best receiver in the NFL, and has the potential to become what Calvin is now. Dalton also has a new first round TE, Tyler Eifert who will help the Bengals offense. I cannot bet against Dalton who has the 2nd best receiver and ultimate red zone threat, A.J. Green catching all his passes.
Top Tier Toss Up - Drew Brees or Peyton Manning
If you listen to me and draft QBs late, you won't be face with this player dilemma. However, if you find yourself wanting to take a top QB for whatever reason, take Aaron Rodgers first. That is obvious, but what might not be obvious is whether to take Brees or Manning if Rodgers is off the board.
I first thought the answer was Manning because he has more weapons that Brees. Decker, Welker, and Thomas are all great options for Manning. His receiver core might be the best he has ever had, and he is 37 years old.
Brees however has what no QB in NFL history has, the record for most passing yards in a single season. Brees is a lock for 5K passing yards every season and if I were to take a QB early, that is something I don't think I can pass up on draft day. I know he will produce big time passing yards and although Manning will have a big year as well, there is some concern with when Peyton will start to slow down. Might be this year.
