Can't decide? I will for you - QB

If you take a look at my rankings, you'll know who you should take if it's a close call between two or maybe three players. That is just rankings so now let me explain myself on some of the close calls that you may encounter on draft day.

Sophomore Slumpers? - Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, or Robert Griffin III

If you go by fantasy production last year, the answer is easy. RG3. But, the points he put up last year may not be the case this year. Griffin's injury really has people concerned about his durability, but then again we saw Adrian Peterson come back from the same injury and make it through the whole year almost breaking Eric Dickerson's rushing yards record.

People think that RG3 is going to become like Michael Vick, where he has flashes of greatness but never be consistent or healthy enough to be a fantasy relevant starter. The Redskins are also a bit concerned about their franchise QB and have talked about limiting his mobility and make him pass the ball more. He has a great arm, don't get me wrong, but his big time fantasy production relies on his rushing yards and TDs.

Russell Wilson was loved by a lot of people coming into this fantasy season, but that hype has since died down. Most likely because of the news that Percy Harvin will be out for the majority of the season. You're right, he didn't have Harvin last year and did pretty well, but Harvin was reallyyyyyy going to help Wilson's fantasy stats this season. Now that Harvin is out, Wilson drops in my rankings a bit just because I don't know who is going to be reliable on the receiving end.

Andrew Luck is my guy to draft out of these top three sophomores. Luck threw for over 4,300 yards last year, most by a rookie in NFL history, and it is only going to get better from here. If you are in a dynasty league, Luck is an obvious pick, and if you are not in a dynasty league, he is still a great starting QB for your roster especially because you can wait on him. You can figure out your running backs and wide outs before you even have to worry about Luck being taken off the board. He has a veteran in Reggie Wayne to throw to along with the youngster T.Y. Hilton. They brought in Ahmad Bradshaw, so the committee between him and Vick Ballard should help open the passing game for Luck to thrive.

Third Year Guys - Cam Newton or Colin Kaepernick, and Andy Dalton or Jake Locker

The first decision I think is easy and it comes down to one thing for me. We have seen what Newton can do for two full years, and we have seen what Kaepernick can do for only half a year. Both are very good QBs and will be productive this year, but if you are trying to decide between Cam or Colin, be safe and smart and go Cam. It will pay off for you because Cam has a better arm, better legs, and more experience than Colin. Don't try to get cute and draft Kaepernick ahead of Newton because he might breakout even more than he did last season (half of a season). We have seen what Newton can do, we have reaped the rewards of having him on our team, and we possibly have been screwed because we played against Newton on a week he had 300 passing yards, 80 rushing yards, and 4 total TDs.

The second decision might be a little tougher than the first because we want to believe that Jake Locker (pick number 8 overall in 2011) can really live up to top 10 status. Phillip Rivers (drafted number 4 overall in 2004) never really broke out into an elite tier of QBs but we thought he would. Jake Locker could be heading towards the same fate Rivers had, average. Especially with his injury problems last year, who knows what he could be this year. The Titians helped him out a bit by drafted WR Justin Hunter, and they already have younger guys like Kenny Britt and Kendall Wright so their are pieces to the puzzle for success for Locker.

Dalton is already matured as a QB in the NFL. He has yet to hit the top tier, but he has what very few QBs have in this league. An elite wide receiver in A.J. Green. Aside from Calvin Johnson, Green is the best receiver in the NFL, and has the potential to become what Calvin is now. Dalton also has a new first round TE, Tyler Eifert who will help the Bengals offense. I cannot bet against Dalton who has the 2nd best receiver and ultimate red zone threat, A.J. Green catching all his passes.

Top Tier Toss Up - Drew Brees or Peyton Manning

If you listen to me and draft QBs late, you won't be face with this player dilemma. However, if you find yourself wanting to take a top QB for whatever reason, take Aaron Rodgers first. That is obvious, but what might not be obvious is whether to take Brees or Manning if Rodgers is off the board.

I first thought the answer was Manning because he has more weapons that Brees. Decker, Welker, and Thomas are all great options for Manning. His receiver core might be the best he has ever had, and he is 37 years old.

Brees however has what no QB in NFL history has, the record for most passing yards in a single season. Brees is a lock for 5K passing yards every season and if I were to take a QB early, that is something I don't think I can pass up on draft day. I know he will produce big time passing yards and although Manning will have a big year as well, there is some concern with when Peyton will start to slow down. Might be this year.

10 Bold Predictions

Bold is a bit broad of a term. Although I say these are bold predictions, I really do believe that the following have a good chance of happening. Now, if they don't happen, I am not responsible, that is why they are called "bold" because there is also a good chance of them not happening. For every great statistic you find to raise a player's value, there is a bad statistic that will drop his value. The following 10 things are my "bold" predictions for the upcoming year and the players featured in them might be worth a higher value than you have them now.

1. Montee Ball and Eddie Lacy will hit double digit TDs

Ball set the college football record for TDs in a career. He piled up 77 TDs in his 4 year career so he has a nose for the end zone. In Trent Richardson’s last season at ‘Bama, he averaged 5.1 yards per carry up the middle, whereas Eddie Lacy averaged 7.6. We know he is going to be the goal line options, but he can score from anywhere in the red zone.

2. Wes Welker will lead the Broncos in receiving yards

We thought Tom Brady was good for Welker, but Peyton Manning might be better. Welker lead the NFL in receptions and receiving yards when lined up in the slot, and guess who had the best completion percentage to receivers lined up in the slot... Peyton Manning (71 %).

3. Matthew Stafford will throw 40 TDs

He threw 41 TDs in 2011, and just 20 TDs last year, however, Calvin Johnson was tackled inside the 5 yard line eight times. And not only that, the whole group of Lions’ receivers were tackled inside the 5 yard line a total of 23 times. Add just half of those 23 close TDs and add it to his 20 TDs, it is about 31. I expect Reggie Bush to catch a few so Stafford will get to 40.

4. Jamaal Charles will lead the league in rushing yards, not AP

He had 1,500 yards last year and in an Andy Reid offense, that number will probably increase this year. Along with this, no 2,000 yard rusher followed it up with even 1,600 yards the next season. The window is there for Charles.

5. Andy Dalton will be a top 10 fantasy quarterback

Everyone is giving all the love to the second year starters (Luck, Kaepernick, RG3, and Wilson), but nobody is talking about Dalton in his third year. The Bengals offensive is solid. They have two nice running backs, one of which (Giovani Bernard) can catch balls out of the backfield well, two big, skilled tight ends, and obviously, AJ Green. He has weapons and can surprise many people this year.

6. Rashard Mendenhall will hit 1,000 yards

Mendenhall has two 1,000 yard seasons in his injury prone career, not coincidently both coming under Bruce Arians’ tenure as Pittsburgh’s offensive coordinator. He has injury questions but I bet he stays healthy the majority of this season and takes a trip back to 2009 and 2010 reuniting with Bruce Arians in Arizona.

7. James Jones will be the best Packers fantasy receiver.

Being high on Randall Cobb this year is okay because he is going to produce. I believe that Jones is very undervalued because he can be the best fantasy receiver on Green Bay. He was targeted just four less times than Cobb last year and had six more TDs than Cobb, actually leading the whole NFL in TDs with 14.

8. Rob Housler will have 8 TDs.

His new quarterback targeted Brandon Myers 105 times in Oakland last year and I am guessing he is going to like Rob Housler better than Myers. Housler is 6 foot 5 and runs a 4.4 second 40 yard dash.

9. Calvin Johnson will break his own receiving yards record.

Although Stafford’s fantasy production dropped last year overall, he still found CJ enough to help him pass Jerry Rice for most receiving yards in a single season. Stafford will be better this year, and thus Calvin will be better as well.

10. Chris Ivory will be a top 15 fantasy running back.

Let’s remember Ivory is, in fact, a running back. Last time I checked the J-E-T-S. JETS. JETS. JETS. JETS don’t have a quarterback that can throw the ball. They did release Tim Tebow, so they improved in the passing game, but their offense is going to be R-U-N. RUN. RUN. RUN.

Who's # 2

Who should be the # 2 pick in the 2013 draft might be one of the hardest questions to answer. I know for a fact that the easiest question to answer is who should be the first pick? Adrian Peterson. All day. And because there is no question about that, there is much discussion about who the second pick should be.

Arian Foster TD celly

Last year, it was a bit up in the air whether to snag a top QB or RB or even WR. But we know, as I have told you, this year you have to grab a RB in the first and probably second round as well. This is why Calvin Johnson and Aaron Rodgers get thrown right out of my mind as candidates for the second selection (in standard point systems).

If I get the second pick in my draft, I know who I am taking (keep reading to find out... or just look at the picture). However, there are a few different player options that I see as reasonable if they were to go second overall. They are (drum roll please): Jamaal Charles, Doug Martin, Marshawn Lynch, and Arian Foster. It’s time to make a case for and against these players being taken second behind AP.

First, Jamaal Charles, who will love his new coach, Andy Reid, and his system. Charles has a chance to lead the NFL is rushing yards and receiving yards by a RB. He is PPR gold, but in standard scoring systems he is simply silver. He has been in the league for five years and with the exception of his rookie season and 2011 when he got hurt, he has 4,096 yards. He has a career 5.8 yards per carry! That is over a whole yard better than Martin, Lynch, and Foster. Charles was talked about as being the comeback player of the year last year, if it wasn’t for Peyton Manning and Adrian Peterson. This year, the Chiefs offense is going to revolve in larger part around him.

The downside is that Charles only has 17 TDs in his five year career. Arian Foster had 15 last year. Charles gets what seems like more yards than chocolate in Willy Wonka’s factory, but he doesn’t find the end zone much. Great fantasy number one RB on your team, but not the second overall pick.

Let me tell you first that I love Doug Martin this year. I think he is going to put up bigger numbers than last year because he has one season under his belt, a much improved offensive line, and he just plain runs hard. If you are in a dynasty or keeper league, you want to lockup the Muscle Hamster for the long term because he is going to be great for you in the present and future. Martin is a very versatile rusher, ranking 5th in the NFL is rushing yard and receiving yards by a running back. He will be top 5 again and deserves to be a top 5 pick, maybe even top 3, but not top 2. Why not?

You look at Martin’s numbers from last year as a whole and you say, wow. But, what you don’t see is that in Week 7 and 8 last year, Martin had 486 combined yards and 6 TDs. Grab a calculator and do 1,926 (total yards) divided by 486 (2 game total yards). It equals roughly 4, which means in that 2 game stretch Martin had 25 % of his 16 game yards total. By the way, those 6 TDs over those 2 games were exactly half of his season total. Just a bit concerning for me, and why I don’t risk the second pick on him.

Over the past two years, it is hard to find many backs better than Marshawn Lynch. He has 2,794 yards, and 23 TDs, both more than anyone else in the league besides Peterson and Foster, and he is still only 26 years old. He is a veteran in the NFL but he does not have any signs of slowing down, but rather it looks like he has just found his stride. Last year he had his best yards per carry average by far (5.0). BEAST MODE! The Seahawks brought in Percy Harvin so I expected them to pass a little more, but now that he is hurt, Lynch is still going to get plenty of carries. Lynch will be a crazy consistent option for you to start every week. He only had two games where he scored less than 8 fantasy points, and ten games where he scored 10 or more fantasy points. He is almost a lock for a 100 yard game, leading the league last year with 10 of such games, which is nice if you get bonuses in your league.

Just like with every player in the NFL, there is something to be concerned about, and with Lynch it will be the running back depth Seattle has. They have Robert Turbin backing up Lynch, and they used a 2nd round draft pick on Christine Michael out of Texas A&M. I don’t think they would have wasted a 2nd round pick on a RB if they didn’t have any concern what so ever about Lynch’s durability as he gets older. However, neither Turbin nor Michael will get in Lynch’s way this year because they are both future options for the team. Lynch is there to stay and produce big for the present.

And now for who I will take with the 2nd overall pick in this year’s fantasy draft. Arian Foster. Foster has been the most consistent rusher over the past three years and his amount of carries have increased in each of the past three seasons. Good thing or bad thing? I say good thing because if he gets work, he will get yards, and even more importantly for Foster, he will get touchdowns. Also over the past three years, Foster has scored 41 TDs, the most out of any running back in the NFL. He is good for basically a TD per game, and along with his yards he has the chance to push the high teens in fantasy points every week. Although he got injured in championship week last season, you most likely would not have been in the championship without him because in exactly half of his games (8) he collected 14 or more fantasy points for your team.

For me, concerns about Foster are very limited. In his last five games of last season he only had one game with more than 20 carries and 100 yards. But, he had 3 TDs over those last five games of the season which was only two less than Jamaal Charles had in all of last season. Foster will find a way to get you points, no matter what. If he gets injured, he will most likely already have a TD in box score. If he doesn’t reach 100 yards as many times as AP or Lynch, he will score 2 TDs. Touchdowns are what get you points and when Foster goes off for 150 yards and 3 TDs, you’ll be glad you took him second overall.

Robb's Rookie Rundown

Every single fantasy season, there are breakout players that nobody expects to break out. These players often times are rookies, and as we saw last season, they can definitely impact your fantasy football roster. Andrew Luck threw for 4,374 yards and 23 TDs. RG3 threw for 3,200 yards and 20 TDs along with 815 rushing yards and 7 TDs. Russell Wilson threw for 3,118 yards and 26 TDs. And that's just the quarterbacks. Alfred Morris rushed for 1,613 yards and 13 TDs. Doug Martin ran for 1,454 yards and 11 TDs. And Trent Richardson produced 950 yards and 11 TDs. Rookies are important to know when it comes time for draft day, especially if you are in a dynasty league. I did some research on the following nine rookies who I believe can have the most impact on their respective NFL teams as well as your fantasy roster.

Tavon Austin, WR, STL

Tavon Austin has a very explosive style of play, so I am banking on Austin to bust open the vault and be money for your roster. He is coming off of a record setting senior year at West Virginia. He had 1,289 receiving yards and 643 rushing yards, breaking the Big 12 single season record with 1,932 yards from scrimmage. He is plugged in and ready to electrify the NFL this season with his elite speed (he ran a 4.34 second 40 yard dash!), and his jukes that left his own punter face first in the dirt in a practice last month. Sure, it’s just the punter, but it forecasts that his lightning quick speed and thunderous moves are ready to take the NFL by storm.

Le’Veon Bell, RB, PIT

Pittsburgh played a little game called musical running backs last season. They had the always injured Rashard Mendenhall, Isaac Redman, Johnathan Dwyer, and even Baron Batch. They needed rushing help to say the least because they have not seen a consistently productive one since Jerome Bettis. Le’Veon Bell is coming off a great season at Michigan State and is expected to get the starting job right of the bat. The Steelers like to run the ball so Bell is going to get some work which he can handle.

Montee Ball, RB, DEN

Montee Ball in his four year college career at Wisconsin had 77 touchdowns. Yes, 77 TDs! He owns the NCAA record for most rushing TDs in a career. He will be the starter in Denver because he is just flat out better than Knowshon Moreno and Ronnie Hillman, and Willis McGahee is gone. With Peyton Manning leading that team and with all the receiving weapons they have, the offense is going to be pass first. But how can you ignore an average of almost 20 TDs per year in college. Ball has a nose for the endzone and he will get his share of chance to get there.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR, HOU

He was the second receiver taken in the 2013 draft, coming off of a 18 TD season from Clemson. He is talented, but may be a little raw. He may not be ready to produce big numbers yet, but you never know if Andrew Johnson is going to get hurt. Last year Johnson was healthy, but drafting Hopkins was definitely because they will need a replacement for the aging Johnson, and Hopkins can be just that. Although the Texans offense will still be based around Arian Foster, Hopkins is going to be involved quite a bit.

Eddie Lacy, RB, GB

I don’t think there was better pick in the draft this past April than the Packers taking Eddie Lacy. He is better than fellow Alabama back, Mark Ingram, but maybe not as good as Trent Richardson. Regardless, Lacy is going to a great offense with the best QB in the league so no matter how much Rodgers wants to throw it, Lacy is going to have his touches as well. And when he does watch out because he runs hard. They drafted Jonathan Franklin as well because of Lacy’s toe injury concerns, but Lacy is going to be the goal line guy every time, and that is what we like to have on our team, touchdowns!

Giovani Bernard, RB, CIN

North Carolina is no Michigan State, Wisconsin, or Alabama, but it is where Giovani Bernard played his college ball. He school is lesser known than the other three I mentioned, and probably why he is not getting the love he deserves for being the first running back taken in the draft. So why is he the fourth back on my list behind Bell, Ball, and Lacy who were all drafted after Bernard? The Law Firm, Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis is the answer. He is not a starting RB talent wise, but he is a veteran so he will probably get the starting job at least for this next season. BJGE averaged less than 4 yard per carry last year which would make it really no surprise if Bernard takes over as the starter mid-season. However, BJGE is still going to get goal line touches.

Aaron Dobson, WR, NE

He was a late second round pick, but how can you not like a receiver who has Tom Brady as his QB. The Patriots lost a huge chunk of their receivers including Wes Welker, Danny Woodhead, Brandon Lloyd, and Aaron Hernandez. Those four guys combined for 3,608 yards and 19 TDs of Tom Brady’s 4,827 yards and 34 TDs. Such a significant loss of production so Dobson is going to come in and get a few targets. He is not a great receiver but Brady will get him the ball in space. The best thing Dobson has going for him is the fact that Danny Amendola is very injury prone, and when Amendola goes down, Dobson’s targets will increase.

Robert Woods, WR, BUF

The Buffalo Bills desperately need some help with their offense, and hence why they drafted QB, EJ Manuel in the first round and WR Robert Woods in the second round. Stevie Johnson is going to be the number one guy, but he lacks deep speed. Woods can bring that to Buffalo and get a lot of work from the first snap. They have CJ Spiller so their run game is going to improve more this year which will open up the passing game. Woods can be the number one guy in Buffalo someday, maybe sooner than we think.

Joseph Randle, RB, DAL

Remember how DeMarco Murray got injured last year? Well, that is why Dallas drafted Joseph Randle out of Oklahoma State. If Murray gets injured again this season, he might not see another start for the Cowboys because Randle will take over as the number one back. He has talent, but may need just a little bit of experience before he can be a great back in the NFL. He can also catch balls out of the backfield better than Murray, so when you’re looking for a late round depth running back, don’t forget about Randle.

Mock Draft and Analysis

Myself and four of my friends got together and did the following mock draft. We each managed two teams and we picked out of a hat to determine draft order for our two teams. No PPR, standard 4 point passing TD and 6 rushing/receiving.

I formatted the mock by team number so 1. = Team 1, 2. = Team 2, etc. So you can see what teams used what strategy and how it worked out for each team in the end.

Round 1: 1. Adrian Peterson 2. Arian Foster 3. Marshawn Lynch 4. Doug Martin 5. CJ Spiller 6. Jamal Charles 7. Trent Richardson 8. LeSean McCoy 9. Alfred Morris 10. Calvin Johnson

Round 2: 10. Aaron Rodgers 9. Ray Rice 8. AJ Green 7. Steven Jackson 6. Stevan Ridley 5. Dez Bryant 4. Drew Brees 3. Matt Forte 2. Julio Jones 1. Maurice Jones Drew

Round 3: 1. Jimmy Graham 2. Peyton Manning 3. Brandon Marshall 4. Frank Gore 5. Chris Johnson 6. Demaryius Thomas 7. Percy Harvin 8. Larry Fitzgerald 9. Monte Ball 10. Rob Gronkowski

Round 4: 10. Roddy White 9. Vincent Jackson 8. Tom Brady 7. Randall Cobb 6. Andrew Johnson 5. Darren McFadden 4. Marques Colston 3. Wes Welker 2. Reggie Wayne 1. Victor Cruz

Round 5: 1. Danny Amendola 2. David Wilson 3. DeMarco Murray 4. Tony Gonzalez 5. Jordy Nelson 6. Cam Newton 7. Darren Sproles 8. Chris Ivory 9. Mike Wallace 10. Lamar Miller

Round 6: 10. Reggie Bush 9. Matt Ryan 8. Steve Smith 7. Le'Veon Bell 6. Jason Witten 5. Russell Wilson 4. BenJarvis Green-Ellis 3. Eddie Lacy 2. Antonio Brown 1. Dwayne Bowe

Round 7: 1. Ryan Matthews 2. Vernon Davis 3. Rashard Mendenhall 4. Cecil Shorts III 5. Eric Decker 6. Tavon Austin 7. Hakeem Nicks 8. Dennis Pitta 9. Pierre Garcon 10. Andre Brown

Round 8: 10. Jonathan Stewart 9. James Jones 8. Isiah Pead 7. Owen Daniels 6. TY Hilton 5. Shane Vereen 4. Torrey Smith 3. Colin Kaepernick 2. Denario Alexander 1. Robert Griffin

Round 9: 1. Ahmad Bradshaw 2. Daryl Richardson 3. Kyle Rudolph 4. Vick Ballard 5. Stevie Johnson 6. Giovani Bernard 7. DeSean Jackson 8. Greg Jennings 9. Seattle 10. San Francisco

Round 10: 10. DeAngelo Williams 9. Ryan Williams 8. Denarius Moore 7. Matthew Stafford 6. Andrew Luck 5. Greg Olsen 4. Kenny Britt 3. Josh Gordon 2. Miles Austin 1. Tony Romo

Round 11: 1. Emanuel Sanders 2. Houston 3. Denver 4. Jonathan Franklin 5. Mike Williams 6. Green Bay 7. Eli Manning 8. Bryce Brown 9. Jared Cook 10. Lance Moore

Round 12: 10. Sidney Rice 9. Mark Ingram 8. Bernard Pierce 7. Fred Jackson 6. Jeremy Maclin 5. Andy Dalton 4. Pittsburgh 3. Anquan Boldin 2. Mikel Leshoure 1. Chris Givens

Round 13: 1. Chicago 2. DeAndre Hopkins 3. Ben Rothlisberger 4. Sam Bradford 5. Cincinnati 6. Ben Tate 7. St. Louis 8. Baltimore 9. Joe Flacco 10. Mohamed Sanu

Round 14: 10. Michael Bush 9. Jacquizz Rodgers 8. Carson Palmer 7. Shonn Greene 6. Mike Goodson 5. Michael Turner 4. Brian Hartline 3. Martellus Bennett 2. Michael Vick 1. Daniel Thomas

Round 15: 1. Stephen Gostowski 2. Antonio Brown 3. Robert Turbin 4. Matt Prater 5. Brandon Myers 6. Kendall Wright 7. Santonio Holmes 8. Jermichael Finely 9. Fred Davis 10. Brandon Pettigrew 

Round 16: 10. Matt Bryant 9. Blair Walsh 8. Justin Tucker 7. Sebastian Janikowski 6. Phil Dawson 5. Randy Bullock 4. Rueben Randle 3. David Akers 2. Josh Brown 1. Santana Moss

Reaction
Round 1: The first four picks were pretty much common sense but then at five Team 5 took CJ Spiller instead of Jamal Charles which might be a little risky. I like Spiller a lot this year, but I also like Charles a lot so at that pick it is basically a toss up to me. Once we get to pick eight, we see the first real “reach” of the draft. I would have much rather had Alfred Morris or Ray Rice on my team over LeSean McCoy at pick eight for two reasons. The first being that McCoy had a tough year last year with injuries, but when he was healthy he produced. The second being that Bryce Brown looks like a very capable back up which we saw last year when he got a couple starts in McCoy’s absence. In his first two starts, he had 347 yards and 4 TDs, so I might expect in Chip Kelly’s new fast paced offense for Brown to steal a bit more work from McCoy.

Round 2: In round two we saw Team 10 go with a different draft strategy and take Calvin Johnson and then Aaron Rodgers, so he is without a RB after the first two rounds. However, he has the consensus number 1 ranked WR and QB so I cannot say it was a bad pick. Team 1, in my mind, got great value with Maurice Jones-Drew at the last pick in the second round. He has the potential to be “Comeback Player of the Year.” Jacksonville does not have much offense besides MJD, so he will be used a lot. If he doesn’t get injured, he can return to his days as a high first round pick.

Round 3: After drafting two RBs, Team 1 opted to take the best TE in the league. A good pick for me because if you don’t get Jimmy Graham, then you should wait a few more rounds for a TE. I have to say that Chris Johnson is not third round value for me. I would pass him up and take Demaryius Thomas, who went with the next pick, every time. Also, Team 9 decided to take a third RB with Monte Ball, which seems okay but I might suggest trying to load up on WR and take a chance on a lower ranked RB that has upside to be your third back.

Round 4: This round was WR heavy which makes sense because most teams want to start with drafting from the short stack of RBs. This left Team 5 with a tough decision, in which he made the wrong one. Taking Darren McFadden is always bad news. He is talented and can put up good numbers, but let me tell you that he WILL get injured again. He never fails to go down and miss games which does not help you fantasy roster. I would stay away as long as I can.

Round 5: In this round, most teams should be looking for a QB who has fallen or a flex player. We see mostly flex picks in round 5, three of which are new starters on their teams. Christ Ivory gets a unique opportunity to be the number one guy in New York. With their passing game as brutal as it is, he is going to be a decently productive back. Lamar Miller is also ready to take over as a starter. He is talented and will get carries just like Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown did back in the day. The most interesting pick is David Wilson, who concerns me because his backup, Andre Brown, might vulture goal line TDs. As long as Wilson doesn’t sprain an ankle during his backflip TD celebration, he will stay productive. Good value for all three of them.

Round 6: Team 7 got a steal with Le’Veon Bell. I do not know if he will be there in the sixth come draft day because I expect more and more people will catch on to his skill. Pittsburgh is going to run the ball a lot and Bell basically has the starting role locked up. As rookie, you might have some concern, but just take a look at what Doug Martin did last year and your concern will be relieved.

Round 7: Pierre Garcon, Pierre Garcon, Pierre Garcon. Steal. I love Garcon this year. Alfred Morris is going to run the ball well which will open up the field for Garcon to catch a lot of balls. He has the talent to become an elite WR in the NFL someday if he does not get injured like last year. In round 7 if Garcon is there, take him. I may not be comfortable having him as my second WR, but as a flex play, I would love to have him.

Round 8-15: Round 9, we saw the first defense come off the board, which is about where I would expect. However, I wouldn’t advise taking a defense that early unless you are completely satisfied with your team in that round, and there are no really appealing options. Do not pass up a RB or WR that you like for a defense, just because you don’t have one yet. In round 10, we see two late QBs, Matthew Stafford and Andrew Luck get taken. Somebody got lucky because in round 10, I would jump so fast to take either of them. Depends on your league, but I wouldn’t expect them to be there in the tenth. Some fliers like Emanuel Sanders, DeAndrew Hopkins, and Michael Turner (why not? he might end up on a team) round out this draft before we get to the last round which as you can see is majority kickers. Wait for the last round for kickers!

Now you know a little about where guys are most likely to fall on draft day. Depending on who you like or who your league mates like, players are going to be taken earlier than you think sometimes, but there will be guys that will fall later than you think as well. Keep doing your mock drafts to get the best feel for where you are going to expect players to come off the board.

If you are in a dynasty league or are interested in the best rookies for this season, I am working on an analysis of my top 10 rookies for the 2013 season. Check back Friday or Saturday to read up on those first year impact players. I’ll post the link on twitter as well, so follow me @rlocks24. As always, email me with questions, comments, or suggestions for topics you want me to write about.

2013 Fantasy Football Rankings

Enjoy these rankings, and use them for your mock drafts to see how it works out! Comment with feedback about guys that should be higher or lower. E-mail me with any questions about my rankings and I will be more than happy to explain why I ranked them there. Have fun! ***Rankings are subject to change from now until draft day.

Come back on Wednesday to check out the mock draft I did with a few of my friends!

($) = Sleeper  (*) = Injury Prone

Quarterbacks

1. Aaron Rodgers, GB, 4

#1 QB, Aaron Rodgers

2. Drew Brees, NO, 7

3. Peyton Manning, DEN, 9

4. Cam Newton, CAR, 4

5. Tom Brady, NE, 10

6. Matt Ryan, ATL, 6

7. Matthew Stafford, DET, 9

8. Russell Wilson, SEA, 12

9. Colin Kaepernick, SF, 9

10. Andrew Luck, IND, 8

11. Robert Griffin III, WAS, 5 (*)

12. Tony Romo, DAL, 11

13. Eli Manning, NYG, 9

14. Andy Dalton, CIN, 12 ($)

15. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT, 5

16. Sam Bradford, STL, 11 ($)

17. Joe Flacco, BAL, 8

18. Josh Freeman, TB, 5

19. Matt Schaub, HOU, 8

20. Ryan Tannehill, MIA, 6

21. Michael Vick, PHI, 12 (*)

22. Carson Palmer, ARI, 9

23. Jay Cutler, CHI, 8

24. Phillip Rivers, SD, 8

25. Alex Smith, KC, 10

Running Backs

1. Adrian Peterson, MIN, 5

2. Arian Foster, HOU, 8

#4 RB, Doug Martin

3. Marshawn Lynch, SEA, 12

4. Doug Martin, TB, 5

5. Jamal Charles, KC, 10

6. CJ Spiller, BUF, 12

7. Trent Richardson, CLE, 10

8. Alfred Morris, WAS, 5

9. Ray Rice, BAL, 8

10. Steven Jackson, ATL, 6

11. Stevan Ridley, NE, 10

12. LeSean McCoy, PHI, 12 (*)

13. Matt Forte, CHI, 8

14. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC, 9 ($,*)

15. Frank Gore, SF, 9

16. Chris Johnson, TEN, 8

17. Monte Ball, DEN, 9

18. David Wilson, NYG, 9

19. Darren Sproles, NO, 7

20. LeVeon Bell, PIT, 5 ($)

21. Lamar Miller, MIA, 6 ($)

22. Reggie Bush, DET, 9

23. DeMarco Murray, DAL, 11 (*)

24. Darren McFadden, OAK, 7 (*)

25. Chris Ivory, NYJ, 10

26. Ben Green-Ellis, CIN, 12

27. Eddie Lacy, GB, 4

28. Ahmad Bradshaw, IND, 8

29. Vick Ballard, IND, 8

30. Ryan Matthews, SD, 8

31. Rashard Mendenhall, ARI, 9 (*)

32. Shane Vereen, NE, 10

33. Andre Brown, NYG, 9

34. Giovani Bernard, CIN, 12 ($)

35. Mark Ingram, NO, 7

36. Bryce Brown, PHI, 12

37. Jonathan Stewart, CAR, 4

38. DeAngelo Williams, CAR, 4

39. Jonathan Franklin, GB, 4

40. Mikel Leshoure, DET, 9

41. Isaiah Pead, STL, 11 ($) - Suspended first 4 games

42. Daryl Richardson, STL, 11

43. Ryan Williams, ARI, 9

44. Joseph Randle, DAL, 11 ($)

45. Bernard Pierce, BAL, 8

46. Ben Tate, HOU, 8

47. Jaquizz Rodgers, ATL, 6

48. Fred Jackson, BUF, 12

49. Ronnie Hillman, DEN, 9

50. Michael Bush, CHI, 8

Wide Receiver

1. Calvin Johnson, DET, 9

2. AJ Green, CIN, 12

3. Dez Bryant, DAL, 11

4. Brandon Marshall, CHI, 8

#8 WR, Larry Fitzgerald

5. Demaryius Thomas, DEN, 9

6. Julio Jones, ATL, 6

7. Vincent Jackson, TB, 5

8. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI, 9

9. Randall Cobb, GB, 4 ($)

10. Percy Harvin, SEA, 12

11. Roddy White, ATL, 6

12. Andre Johnson, HOU, 8 (*)

13. Wes Welker, DEN, 9

14. Victor Cruz, NYG, 9

15. Reggie Wayne, IND, 8

16. Jordy Nelson, GB, 4

17. Marques Colston, NO, 7

18. Danny Amendola, NE, 10 (*)

19. Antonio Brown, PIT, 5 ($)

20. Mike Wallace, MIA, 6

21. Steve Smith, CAR, 9

22. Dwayne Bowe, KC, 10

23. Pierre Garcon, WAS, 5 ($,*)

24. James Jones, GB, 4

25. Hakeem Nicks, NYG, 9

26. Cecil Shorts, JAC, 9 (*)

27. Eric Decker, DEN, 9

28. Tavon Austin, STL, 11 ($)

29. Torrey Smith, BAL, 8

30. Greg Jennings, MIN, 5

31. Anquan Boldin, SF, 9

32. TY Hilton, IND, 8

33. Stevie Johnson, BUF, 12

34. Miles Austin, DAL, 11

35. DeSean Jackson, PHI, 12 (*)

36. Danario Alexander, SD 8

37. Josh Gordon, CLE, 10 ($)

38. Mike Williams, TB, 5

39. Jeremy Maclin, PHI, 12

40. Emmanuel Sanders, PIT, 5

41. Denarius Moore, OAK, 7

42. Lance Moore, NO, 7

43. DeAndre Hopkins, HOU, 8 ($)

44. Kenny Britt, TEN, 8

45. Sidney Rice, SEA, 12

46. Chris Givens, STL, 11

47. Aaron Dobson, NE, 10 ($)

48. Kendall Wright, TEN, 8

49. Santonio Holmes, NYJ, 10

50. Alshon Jeffery, CHI, 8

Tight Ends

1. Jimmy Graham, NO, 7

2. Tony Gonzalez, ATL, 6

#1 TE, Jimmy Graham

3. Rob Gronkowski, NE, 10 (*)

4. Jason Witten, DAL, 11

5. Vernon Davis, SF, 9

6. Dennis Pitta, BAL, 8

7. Owen Daniels, HOU, 8

8. Brandon Meyers, NYG, 9 ($)

9. Kyle Rudolph, MIN, 5

10. Greg Olsen, CAR, 4

11. Antonio Gates, SD, 8

12. Martellus Bennett, CHI, 8

13. Jared Cook, STL, 11

14. Dustin Keller, MIA, 6

15. Brandon Pettigrew, DET, 9

16. Fred Davis, WAS, 5

17. Jermichael Finley, GB, 4 (*)

18. Rob Housler, ARI, 9 ($)

19. Jordan Cameron, CLE, 10

20. Coby Fleener, IND, 8

21. Jermaine Gresham, CIN, 12

22. Tyler Eifert, CIN, 12

23. Dwayne Allen, IND, 8

24. Jacob Tamme, DEN, 9

25. Joel Dressen, DEN, 9

Defenses

1. Seattle, 12

2. San Francisco, 9

#1 DEF, Seattle Seahawks

3. Houston, 8

4. Denver, 9

5. Chicago, 8

6. Cincinnati, 12

7. Pittsburgh, 5

8. New England, 10

9. Green Bay, 4

10. St. Louis, 11

11. Baltimore, 8

12. Miami, 6

13. Dallas, 11

14. San Diego, 8

15. New York G, 9

16. Tampa Bay, 5

17. Minnesota, 5

18. Atlanta, 6

19. Cleveland, 10

20. Carolina, 4

21. Arizona, 9

22. Washington, 5

23. New York J, 10

24. Kansas City, 10

25. Detroit, 9

Kickers

1. Stephen Gostkowski, NE, 10

2. Blair Walsh, MIN, 5

#9 K, Sebastian Janikowski

3. Matt Bryant, ATL, 6

4. Matt Prater, DEN, 9

5. Justin Tucker, BAL, 8

6. Phil Dawson, SF, 9

7. Josh Brown, NYG, 9

8. Randy Bullock, HOU, 8

9. Sebastian Janikowski, OAK, 7

10. David Akers, DET, 9

11. Greg Zuerlein, STL, 11

12. Dan Bailey, DAL, 11

13. Garrett Hartley, NO, 7

14. Steven Hauschka, SEA, 12

15. Robbie Gould, CHI, 8