Mock Draft and Analysis

Myself and four of my friends got together and did the following mock draft. We each managed two teams and we picked out of a hat to determine draft order for our two teams. No PPR, standard 4 point passing TD and 6 rushing/receiving.

I formatted the mock by team number so 1. = Team 1, 2. = Team 2, etc. So you can see what teams used what strategy and how it worked out for each team in the end.

Round 1: 1. Adrian Peterson 2. Arian Foster 3. Marshawn Lynch 4. Doug Martin 5. CJ Spiller 6. Jamal Charles 7. Trent Richardson 8. LeSean McCoy 9. Alfred Morris 10. Calvin Johnson

Round 2: 10. Aaron Rodgers 9. Ray Rice 8. AJ Green 7. Steven Jackson 6. Stevan Ridley 5. Dez Bryant 4. Drew Brees 3. Matt Forte 2. Julio Jones 1. Maurice Jones Drew

Round 3: 1. Jimmy Graham 2. Peyton Manning 3. Brandon Marshall 4. Frank Gore 5. Chris Johnson 6. Demaryius Thomas 7. Percy Harvin 8. Larry Fitzgerald 9. Monte Ball 10. Rob Gronkowski

Round 4: 10. Roddy White 9. Vincent Jackson 8. Tom Brady 7. Randall Cobb 6. Andrew Johnson 5. Darren McFadden 4. Marques Colston 3. Wes Welker 2. Reggie Wayne 1. Victor Cruz

Round 5: 1. Danny Amendola 2. David Wilson 3. DeMarco Murray 4. Tony Gonzalez 5. Jordy Nelson 6. Cam Newton 7. Darren Sproles 8. Chris Ivory 9. Mike Wallace 10. Lamar Miller

Round 6: 10. Reggie Bush 9. Matt Ryan 8. Steve Smith 7. Le'Veon Bell 6. Jason Witten 5. Russell Wilson 4. BenJarvis Green-Ellis 3. Eddie Lacy 2. Antonio Brown 1. Dwayne Bowe

Round 7: 1. Ryan Matthews 2. Vernon Davis 3. Rashard Mendenhall 4. Cecil Shorts III 5. Eric Decker 6. Tavon Austin 7. Hakeem Nicks 8. Dennis Pitta 9. Pierre Garcon 10. Andre Brown

Round 8: 10. Jonathan Stewart 9. James Jones 8. Isiah Pead 7. Owen Daniels 6. TY Hilton 5. Shane Vereen 4. Torrey Smith 3. Colin Kaepernick 2. Denario Alexander 1. Robert Griffin

Round 9: 1. Ahmad Bradshaw 2. Daryl Richardson 3. Kyle Rudolph 4. Vick Ballard 5. Stevie Johnson 6. Giovani Bernard 7. DeSean Jackson 8. Greg Jennings 9. Seattle 10. San Francisco

Round 10: 10. DeAngelo Williams 9. Ryan Williams 8. Denarius Moore 7. Matthew Stafford 6. Andrew Luck 5. Greg Olsen 4. Kenny Britt 3. Josh Gordon 2. Miles Austin 1. Tony Romo

Round 11: 1. Emanuel Sanders 2. Houston 3. Denver 4. Jonathan Franklin 5. Mike Williams 6. Green Bay 7. Eli Manning 8. Bryce Brown 9. Jared Cook 10. Lance Moore

Round 12: 10. Sidney Rice 9. Mark Ingram 8. Bernard Pierce 7. Fred Jackson 6. Jeremy Maclin 5. Andy Dalton 4. Pittsburgh 3. Anquan Boldin 2. Mikel Leshoure 1. Chris Givens

Round 13: 1. Chicago 2. DeAndre Hopkins 3. Ben Rothlisberger 4. Sam Bradford 5. Cincinnati 6. Ben Tate 7. St. Louis 8. Baltimore 9. Joe Flacco 10. Mohamed Sanu

Round 14: 10. Michael Bush 9. Jacquizz Rodgers 8. Carson Palmer 7. Shonn Greene 6. Mike Goodson 5. Michael Turner 4. Brian Hartline 3. Martellus Bennett 2. Michael Vick 1. Daniel Thomas

Round 15: 1. Stephen Gostowski 2. Antonio Brown 3. Robert Turbin 4. Matt Prater 5. Brandon Myers 6. Kendall Wright 7. Santonio Holmes 8. Jermichael Finely 9. Fred Davis 10. Brandon Pettigrew 

Round 16: 10. Matt Bryant 9. Blair Walsh 8. Justin Tucker 7. Sebastian Janikowski 6. Phil Dawson 5. Randy Bullock 4. Rueben Randle 3. David Akers 2. Josh Brown 1. Santana Moss

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Round 1: The first four picks were pretty much common sense but then at five Team 5 took CJ Spiller instead of Jamal Charles which might be a little risky. I like Spiller a lot this year, but I also like Charles a lot so at that pick it is basically a toss up to me. Once we get to pick eight, we see the first real “reach” of the draft. I would have much rather had Alfred Morris or Ray Rice on my team over LeSean McCoy at pick eight for two reasons. The first being that McCoy had a tough year last year with injuries, but when he was healthy he produced. The second being that Bryce Brown looks like a very capable back up which we saw last year when he got a couple starts in McCoy’s absence. In his first two starts, he had 347 yards and 4 TDs, so I might expect in Chip Kelly’s new fast paced offense for Brown to steal a bit more work from McCoy.

Round 2: In round two we saw Team 10 go with a different draft strategy and take Calvin Johnson and then Aaron Rodgers, so he is without a RB after the first two rounds. However, he has the consensus number 1 ranked WR and QB so I cannot say it was a bad pick. Team 1, in my mind, got great value with Maurice Jones-Drew at the last pick in the second round. He has the potential to be “Comeback Player of the Year.” Jacksonville does not have much offense besides MJD, so he will be used a lot. If he doesn’t get injured, he can return to his days as a high first round pick.

Round 3: After drafting two RBs, Team 1 opted to take the best TE in the league. A good pick for me because if you don’t get Jimmy Graham, then you should wait a few more rounds for a TE. I have to say that Chris Johnson is not third round value for me. I would pass him up and take Demaryius Thomas, who went with the next pick, every time. Also, Team 9 decided to take a third RB with Monte Ball, which seems okay but I might suggest trying to load up on WR and take a chance on a lower ranked RB that has upside to be your third back.

Round 4: This round was WR heavy which makes sense because most teams want to start with drafting from the short stack of RBs. This left Team 5 with a tough decision, in which he made the wrong one. Taking Darren McFadden is always bad news. He is talented and can put up good numbers, but let me tell you that he WILL get injured again. He never fails to go down and miss games which does not help you fantasy roster. I would stay away as long as I can.

Round 5: In this round, most teams should be looking for a QB who has fallen or a flex player. We see mostly flex picks in round 5, three of which are new starters on their teams. Christ Ivory gets a unique opportunity to be the number one guy in New York. With their passing game as brutal as it is, he is going to be a decently productive back. Lamar Miller is also ready to take over as a starter. He is talented and will get carries just like Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown did back in the day. The most interesting pick is David Wilson, who concerns me because his backup, Andre Brown, might vulture goal line TDs. As long as Wilson doesn’t sprain an ankle during his backflip TD celebration, he will stay productive. Good value for all three of them.

Round 6: Team 7 got a steal with Le’Veon Bell. I do not know if he will be there in the sixth come draft day because I expect more and more people will catch on to his skill. Pittsburgh is going to run the ball a lot and Bell basically has the starting role locked up. As rookie, you might have some concern, but just take a look at what Doug Martin did last year and your concern will be relieved.

Round 7: Pierre Garcon, Pierre Garcon, Pierre Garcon. Steal. I love Garcon this year. Alfred Morris is going to run the ball well which will open up the field for Garcon to catch a lot of balls. He has the talent to become an elite WR in the NFL someday if he does not get injured like last year. In round 7 if Garcon is there, take him. I may not be comfortable having him as my second WR, but as a flex play, I would love to have him.

Round 8-15: Round 9, we saw the first defense come off the board, which is about where I would expect. However, I wouldn’t advise taking a defense that early unless you are completely satisfied with your team in that round, and there are no really appealing options. Do not pass up a RB or WR that you like for a defense, just because you don’t have one yet. In round 10, we see two late QBs, Matthew Stafford and Andrew Luck get taken. Somebody got lucky because in round 10, I would jump so fast to take either of them. Depends on your league, but I wouldn’t expect them to be there in the tenth. Some fliers like Emanuel Sanders, DeAndrew Hopkins, and Michael Turner (why not? he might end up on a team) round out this draft before we get to the last round which as you can see is majority kickers. Wait for the last round for kickers!

Now you know a little about where guys are most likely to fall on draft day. Depending on who you like or who your league mates like, players are going to be taken earlier than you think sometimes, but there will be guys that will fall later than you think as well. Keep doing your mock drafts to get the best feel for where you are going to expect players to come off the board.

If you are in a dynasty league or are interested in the best rookies for this season, I am working on an analysis of my top 10 rookies for the 2013 season. Check back Friday or Saturday to read up on those first year impact players. I’ll post the link on twitter as well, so follow me @rlocks24. As always, email me with questions, comments, or suggestions for topics you want me to write about.