Who's # 2

Who should be the # 2 pick in the 2013 draft might be one of the hardest questions to answer. I know for a fact that the easiest question to answer is who should be the first pick? Adrian Peterson. All day. And because there is no question about that, there is much discussion about who the second pick should be.

Arian Foster TD celly

Last year, it was a bit up in the air whether to snag a top QB or RB or even WR. But we know, as I have told you, this year you have to grab a RB in the first and probably second round as well. This is why Calvin Johnson and Aaron Rodgers get thrown right out of my mind as candidates for the second selection (in standard point systems).

If I get the second pick in my draft, I know who I am taking (keep reading to find out... or just look at the picture). However, there are a few different player options that I see as reasonable if they were to go second overall. They are (drum roll please): Jamaal Charles, Doug Martin, Marshawn Lynch, and Arian Foster. It’s time to make a case for and against these players being taken second behind AP.

First, Jamaal Charles, who will love his new coach, Andy Reid, and his system. Charles has a chance to lead the NFL is rushing yards and receiving yards by a RB. He is PPR gold, but in standard scoring systems he is simply silver. He has been in the league for five years and with the exception of his rookie season and 2011 when he got hurt, he has 4,096 yards. He has a career 5.8 yards per carry! That is over a whole yard better than Martin, Lynch, and Foster. Charles was talked about as being the comeback player of the year last year, if it wasn’t for Peyton Manning and Adrian Peterson. This year, the Chiefs offense is going to revolve in larger part around him.

The downside is that Charles only has 17 TDs in his five year career. Arian Foster had 15 last year. Charles gets what seems like more yards than chocolate in Willy Wonka’s factory, but he doesn’t find the end zone much. Great fantasy number one RB on your team, but not the second overall pick.

Let me tell you first that I love Doug Martin this year. I think he is going to put up bigger numbers than last year because he has one season under his belt, a much improved offensive line, and he just plain runs hard. If you are in a dynasty or keeper league, you want to lockup the Muscle Hamster for the long term because he is going to be great for you in the present and future. Martin is a very versatile rusher, ranking 5th in the NFL is rushing yard and receiving yards by a running back. He will be top 5 again and deserves to be a top 5 pick, maybe even top 3, but not top 2. Why not?

You look at Martin’s numbers from last year as a whole and you say, wow. But, what you don’t see is that in Week 7 and 8 last year, Martin had 486 combined yards and 6 TDs. Grab a calculator and do 1,926 (total yards) divided by 486 (2 game total yards). It equals roughly 4, which means in that 2 game stretch Martin had 25 % of his 16 game yards total. By the way, those 6 TDs over those 2 games were exactly half of his season total. Just a bit concerning for me, and why I don’t risk the second pick on him.

Over the past two years, it is hard to find many backs better than Marshawn Lynch. He has 2,794 yards, and 23 TDs, both more than anyone else in the league besides Peterson and Foster, and he is still only 26 years old. He is a veteran in the NFL but he does not have any signs of slowing down, but rather it looks like he has just found his stride. Last year he had his best yards per carry average by far (5.0). BEAST MODE! The Seahawks brought in Percy Harvin so I expected them to pass a little more, but now that he is hurt, Lynch is still going to get plenty of carries. Lynch will be a crazy consistent option for you to start every week. He only had two games where he scored less than 8 fantasy points, and ten games where he scored 10 or more fantasy points. He is almost a lock for a 100 yard game, leading the league last year with 10 of such games, which is nice if you get bonuses in your league.

Just like with every player in the NFL, there is something to be concerned about, and with Lynch it will be the running back depth Seattle has. They have Robert Turbin backing up Lynch, and they used a 2nd round draft pick on Christine Michael out of Texas A&M. I don’t think they would have wasted a 2nd round pick on a RB if they didn’t have any concern what so ever about Lynch’s durability as he gets older. However, neither Turbin nor Michael will get in Lynch’s way this year because they are both future options for the team. Lynch is there to stay and produce big for the present.

And now for who I will take with the 2nd overall pick in this year’s fantasy draft. Arian Foster. Foster has been the most consistent rusher over the past three years and his amount of carries have increased in each of the past three seasons. Good thing or bad thing? I say good thing because if he gets work, he will get yards, and even more importantly for Foster, he will get touchdowns. Also over the past three years, Foster has scored 41 TDs, the most out of any running back in the NFL. He is good for basically a TD per game, and along with his yards he has the chance to push the high teens in fantasy points every week. Although he got injured in championship week last season, you most likely would not have been in the championship without him because in exactly half of his games (8) he collected 14 or more fantasy points for your team.

For me, concerns about Foster are very limited. In his last five games of last season he only had one game with more than 20 carries and 100 yards. But, he had 3 TDs over those last five games of the season which was only two less than Jamaal Charles had in all of last season. Foster will find a way to get you points, no matter what. If he gets injured, he will most likely already have a TD in box score. If he doesn’t reach 100 yards as many times as AP or Lynch, he will score 2 TDs. Touchdowns are what get you points and when Foster goes off for 150 yards and 3 TDs, you’ll be glad you took him second overall.