10 Bold Predictions

Bold is a bit broad of a term. Although I say these are bold predictions, I really do believe that the following have a good chance of happening. Now, if they don't happen, I am not responsible, that is why they are called "bold" because there is also a good chance of them not happening. For every great statistic you find to raise a player's value, there is a bad statistic that will drop his value. The following 10 things are my "bold" predictions for the upcoming year and the players featured in them might be worth a higher value than you have them now.

1. Montee Ball and Eddie Lacy will hit double digit TDs

Ball set the college football record for TDs in a career. He piled up 77 TDs in his 4 year career so he has a nose for the end zone. In Trent Richardson’s last season at ‘Bama, he averaged 5.1 yards per carry up the middle, whereas Eddie Lacy averaged 7.6. We know he is going to be the goal line options, but he can score from anywhere in the red zone.

2. Wes Welker will lead the Broncos in receiving yards

We thought Tom Brady was good for Welker, but Peyton Manning might be better. Welker lead the NFL in receptions and receiving yards when lined up in the slot, and guess who had the best completion percentage to receivers lined up in the slot... Peyton Manning (71 %).

3. Matthew Stafford will throw 40 TDs

He threw 41 TDs in 2011, and just 20 TDs last year, however, Calvin Johnson was tackled inside the 5 yard line eight times. And not only that, the whole group of Lions’ receivers were tackled inside the 5 yard line a total of 23 times. Add just half of those 23 close TDs and add it to his 20 TDs, it is about 31. I expect Reggie Bush to catch a few so Stafford will get to 40.

4. Jamaal Charles will lead the league in rushing yards, not AP

He had 1,500 yards last year and in an Andy Reid offense, that number will probably increase this year. Along with this, no 2,000 yard rusher followed it up with even 1,600 yards the next season. The window is there for Charles.

5. Andy Dalton will be a top 10 fantasy quarterback

Everyone is giving all the love to the second year starters (Luck, Kaepernick, RG3, and Wilson), but nobody is talking about Dalton in his third year. The Bengals offensive is solid. They have two nice running backs, one of which (Giovani Bernard) can catch balls out of the backfield well, two big, skilled tight ends, and obviously, AJ Green. He has weapons and can surprise many people this year.

6. Rashard Mendenhall will hit 1,000 yards

Mendenhall has two 1,000 yard seasons in his injury prone career, not coincidently both coming under Bruce Arians’ tenure as Pittsburgh’s offensive coordinator. He has injury questions but I bet he stays healthy the majority of this season and takes a trip back to 2009 and 2010 reuniting with Bruce Arians in Arizona.

7. James Jones will be the best Packers fantasy receiver.

Being high on Randall Cobb this year is okay because he is going to produce. I believe that Jones is very undervalued because he can be the best fantasy receiver on Green Bay. He was targeted just four less times than Cobb last year and had six more TDs than Cobb, actually leading the whole NFL in TDs with 14.

8. Rob Housler will have 8 TDs.

His new quarterback targeted Brandon Myers 105 times in Oakland last year and I am guessing he is going to like Rob Housler better than Myers. Housler is 6 foot 5 and runs a 4.4 second 40 yard dash.

9. Calvin Johnson will break his own receiving yards record.

Although Stafford’s fantasy production dropped last year overall, he still found CJ enough to help him pass Jerry Rice for most receiving yards in a single season. Stafford will be better this year, and thus Calvin will be better as well.

10. Chris Ivory will be a top 15 fantasy running back.

Let’s remember Ivory is, in fact, a running back. Last time I checked the J-E-T-S. JETS. JETS. JETS. JETS don’t have a quarterback that can throw the ball. They did release Tim Tebow, so they improved in the passing game, but their offense is going to be R-U-N. RUN. RUN. RUN.

Who's # 2

Who should be the # 2 pick in the 2013 draft might be one of the hardest questions to answer. I know for a fact that the easiest question to answer is who should be the first pick? Adrian Peterson. All day. And because there is no question about that, there is much discussion about who the second pick should be.

Arian Foster TD celly

Last year, it was a bit up in the air whether to snag a top QB or RB or even WR. But we know, as I have told you, this year you have to grab a RB in the first and probably second round as well. This is why Calvin Johnson and Aaron Rodgers get thrown right out of my mind as candidates for the second selection (in standard point systems).

If I get the second pick in my draft, I know who I am taking (keep reading to find out... or just look at the picture). However, there are a few different player options that I see as reasonable if they were to go second overall. They are (drum roll please): Jamaal Charles, Doug Martin, Marshawn Lynch, and Arian Foster. It’s time to make a case for and against these players being taken second behind AP.

First, Jamaal Charles, who will love his new coach, Andy Reid, and his system. Charles has a chance to lead the NFL is rushing yards and receiving yards by a RB. He is PPR gold, but in standard scoring systems he is simply silver. He has been in the league for five years and with the exception of his rookie season and 2011 when he got hurt, he has 4,096 yards. He has a career 5.8 yards per carry! That is over a whole yard better than Martin, Lynch, and Foster. Charles was talked about as being the comeback player of the year last year, if it wasn’t for Peyton Manning and Adrian Peterson. This year, the Chiefs offense is going to revolve in larger part around him.

The downside is that Charles only has 17 TDs in his five year career. Arian Foster had 15 last year. Charles gets what seems like more yards than chocolate in Willy Wonka’s factory, but he doesn’t find the end zone much. Great fantasy number one RB on your team, but not the second overall pick.

Let me tell you first that I love Doug Martin this year. I think he is going to put up bigger numbers than last year because he has one season under his belt, a much improved offensive line, and he just plain runs hard. If you are in a dynasty or keeper league, you want to lockup the Muscle Hamster for the long term because he is going to be great for you in the present and future. Martin is a very versatile rusher, ranking 5th in the NFL is rushing yard and receiving yards by a running back. He will be top 5 again and deserves to be a top 5 pick, maybe even top 3, but not top 2. Why not?

You look at Martin’s numbers from last year as a whole and you say, wow. But, what you don’t see is that in Week 7 and 8 last year, Martin had 486 combined yards and 6 TDs. Grab a calculator and do 1,926 (total yards) divided by 486 (2 game total yards). It equals roughly 4, which means in that 2 game stretch Martin had 25 % of his 16 game yards total. By the way, those 6 TDs over those 2 games were exactly half of his season total. Just a bit concerning for me, and why I don’t risk the second pick on him.

Over the past two years, it is hard to find many backs better than Marshawn Lynch. He has 2,794 yards, and 23 TDs, both more than anyone else in the league besides Peterson and Foster, and he is still only 26 years old. He is a veteran in the NFL but he does not have any signs of slowing down, but rather it looks like he has just found his stride. Last year he had his best yards per carry average by far (5.0). BEAST MODE! The Seahawks brought in Percy Harvin so I expected them to pass a little more, but now that he is hurt, Lynch is still going to get plenty of carries. Lynch will be a crazy consistent option for you to start every week. He only had two games where he scored less than 8 fantasy points, and ten games where he scored 10 or more fantasy points. He is almost a lock for a 100 yard game, leading the league last year with 10 of such games, which is nice if you get bonuses in your league.

Just like with every player in the NFL, there is something to be concerned about, and with Lynch it will be the running back depth Seattle has. They have Robert Turbin backing up Lynch, and they used a 2nd round draft pick on Christine Michael out of Texas A&M. I don’t think they would have wasted a 2nd round pick on a RB if they didn’t have any concern what so ever about Lynch’s durability as he gets older. However, neither Turbin nor Michael will get in Lynch’s way this year because they are both future options for the team. Lynch is there to stay and produce big for the present.

And now for who I will take with the 2nd overall pick in this year’s fantasy draft. Arian Foster. Foster has been the most consistent rusher over the past three years and his amount of carries have increased in each of the past three seasons. Good thing or bad thing? I say good thing because if he gets work, he will get yards, and even more importantly for Foster, he will get touchdowns. Also over the past three years, Foster has scored 41 TDs, the most out of any running back in the NFL. He is good for basically a TD per game, and along with his yards he has the chance to push the high teens in fantasy points every week. Although he got injured in championship week last season, you most likely would not have been in the championship without him because in exactly half of his games (8) he collected 14 or more fantasy points for your team.

For me, concerns about Foster are very limited. In his last five games of last season he only had one game with more than 20 carries and 100 yards. But, he had 3 TDs over those last five games of the season which was only two less than Jamaal Charles had in all of last season. Foster will find a way to get you points, no matter what. If he gets injured, he will most likely already have a TD in box score. If he doesn’t reach 100 yards as many times as AP or Lynch, he will score 2 TDs. Touchdowns are what get you points and when Foster goes off for 150 yards and 3 TDs, you’ll be glad you took him second overall.

Robb's Rookie Rundown

Every single fantasy season, there are breakout players that nobody expects to break out. These players often times are rookies, and as we saw last season, they can definitely impact your fantasy football roster. Andrew Luck threw for 4,374 yards and 23 TDs. RG3 threw for 3,200 yards and 20 TDs along with 815 rushing yards and 7 TDs. Russell Wilson threw for 3,118 yards and 26 TDs. And that's just the quarterbacks. Alfred Morris rushed for 1,613 yards and 13 TDs. Doug Martin ran for 1,454 yards and 11 TDs. And Trent Richardson produced 950 yards and 11 TDs. Rookies are important to know when it comes time for draft day, especially if you are in a dynasty league. I did some research on the following nine rookies who I believe can have the most impact on their respective NFL teams as well as your fantasy roster.

Tavon Austin, WR, STL

Tavon Austin has a very explosive style of play, so I am banking on Austin to bust open the vault and be money for your roster. He is coming off of a record setting senior year at West Virginia. He had 1,289 receiving yards and 643 rushing yards, breaking the Big 12 single season record with 1,932 yards from scrimmage. He is plugged in and ready to electrify the NFL this season with his elite speed (he ran a 4.34 second 40 yard dash!), and his jukes that left his own punter face first in the dirt in a practice last month. Sure, it’s just the punter, but it forecasts that his lightning quick speed and thunderous moves are ready to take the NFL by storm.

Le’Veon Bell, RB, PIT

Pittsburgh played a little game called musical running backs last season. They had the always injured Rashard Mendenhall, Isaac Redman, Johnathan Dwyer, and even Baron Batch. They needed rushing help to say the least because they have not seen a consistently productive one since Jerome Bettis. Le’Veon Bell is coming off a great season at Michigan State and is expected to get the starting job right of the bat. The Steelers like to run the ball so Bell is going to get some work which he can handle.

Montee Ball, RB, DEN

Montee Ball in his four year college career at Wisconsin had 77 touchdowns. Yes, 77 TDs! He owns the NCAA record for most rushing TDs in a career. He will be the starter in Denver because he is just flat out better than Knowshon Moreno and Ronnie Hillman, and Willis McGahee is gone. With Peyton Manning leading that team and with all the receiving weapons they have, the offense is going to be pass first. But how can you ignore an average of almost 20 TDs per year in college. Ball has a nose for the endzone and he will get his share of chance to get there.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR, HOU

He was the second receiver taken in the 2013 draft, coming off of a 18 TD season from Clemson. He is talented, but may be a little raw. He may not be ready to produce big numbers yet, but you never know if Andrew Johnson is going to get hurt. Last year Johnson was healthy, but drafting Hopkins was definitely because they will need a replacement for the aging Johnson, and Hopkins can be just that. Although the Texans offense will still be based around Arian Foster, Hopkins is going to be involved quite a bit.

Eddie Lacy, RB, GB

I don’t think there was better pick in the draft this past April than the Packers taking Eddie Lacy. He is better than fellow Alabama back, Mark Ingram, but maybe not as good as Trent Richardson. Regardless, Lacy is going to a great offense with the best QB in the league so no matter how much Rodgers wants to throw it, Lacy is going to have his touches as well. And when he does watch out because he runs hard. They drafted Jonathan Franklin as well because of Lacy’s toe injury concerns, but Lacy is going to be the goal line guy every time, and that is what we like to have on our team, touchdowns!

Giovani Bernard, RB, CIN

North Carolina is no Michigan State, Wisconsin, or Alabama, but it is where Giovani Bernard played his college ball. He school is lesser known than the other three I mentioned, and probably why he is not getting the love he deserves for being the first running back taken in the draft. So why is he the fourth back on my list behind Bell, Ball, and Lacy who were all drafted after Bernard? The Law Firm, Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis is the answer. He is not a starting RB talent wise, but he is a veteran so he will probably get the starting job at least for this next season. BJGE averaged less than 4 yard per carry last year which would make it really no surprise if Bernard takes over as the starter mid-season. However, BJGE is still going to get goal line touches.

Aaron Dobson, WR, NE

He was a late second round pick, but how can you not like a receiver who has Tom Brady as his QB. The Patriots lost a huge chunk of their receivers including Wes Welker, Danny Woodhead, Brandon Lloyd, and Aaron Hernandez. Those four guys combined for 3,608 yards and 19 TDs of Tom Brady’s 4,827 yards and 34 TDs. Such a significant loss of production so Dobson is going to come in and get a few targets. He is not a great receiver but Brady will get him the ball in space. The best thing Dobson has going for him is the fact that Danny Amendola is very injury prone, and when Amendola goes down, Dobson’s targets will increase.

Robert Woods, WR, BUF

The Buffalo Bills desperately need some help with their offense, and hence why they drafted QB, EJ Manuel in the first round and WR Robert Woods in the second round. Stevie Johnson is going to be the number one guy, but he lacks deep speed. Woods can bring that to Buffalo and get a lot of work from the first snap. They have CJ Spiller so their run game is going to improve more this year which will open up the passing game. Woods can be the number one guy in Buffalo someday, maybe sooner than we think.

Joseph Randle, RB, DAL

Remember how DeMarco Murray got injured last year? Well, that is why Dallas drafted Joseph Randle out of Oklahoma State. If Murray gets injured again this season, he might not see another start for the Cowboys because Randle will take over as the number one back. He has talent, but may need just a little bit of experience before he can be a great back in the NFL. He can also catch balls out of the backfield better than Murray, so when you’re looking for a late round depth running back, don’t forget about Randle.

Mock Draft and Analysis

Myself and four of my friends got together and did the following mock draft. We each managed two teams and we picked out of a hat to determine draft order for our two teams. No PPR, standard 4 point passing TD and 6 rushing/receiving.

I formatted the mock by team number so 1. = Team 1, 2. = Team 2, etc. So you can see what teams used what strategy and how it worked out for each team in the end.

Round 1: 1. Adrian Peterson 2. Arian Foster 3. Marshawn Lynch 4. Doug Martin 5. CJ Spiller 6. Jamal Charles 7. Trent Richardson 8. LeSean McCoy 9. Alfred Morris 10. Calvin Johnson

Round 2: 10. Aaron Rodgers 9. Ray Rice 8. AJ Green 7. Steven Jackson 6. Stevan Ridley 5. Dez Bryant 4. Drew Brees 3. Matt Forte 2. Julio Jones 1. Maurice Jones Drew

Round 3: 1. Jimmy Graham 2. Peyton Manning 3. Brandon Marshall 4. Frank Gore 5. Chris Johnson 6. Demaryius Thomas 7. Percy Harvin 8. Larry Fitzgerald 9. Monte Ball 10. Rob Gronkowski

Round 4: 10. Roddy White 9. Vincent Jackson 8. Tom Brady 7. Randall Cobb 6. Andrew Johnson 5. Darren McFadden 4. Marques Colston 3. Wes Welker 2. Reggie Wayne 1. Victor Cruz

Round 5: 1. Danny Amendola 2. David Wilson 3. DeMarco Murray 4. Tony Gonzalez 5. Jordy Nelson 6. Cam Newton 7. Darren Sproles 8. Chris Ivory 9. Mike Wallace 10. Lamar Miller

Round 6: 10. Reggie Bush 9. Matt Ryan 8. Steve Smith 7. Le'Veon Bell 6. Jason Witten 5. Russell Wilson 4. BenJarvis Green-Ellis 3. Eddie Lacy 2. Antonio Brown 1. Dwayne Bowe

Round 7: 1. Ryan Matthews 2. Vernon Davis 3. Rashard Mendenhall 4. Cecil Shorts III 5. Eric Decker 6. Tavon Austin 7. Hakeem Nicks 8. Dennis Pitta 9. Pierre Garcon 10. Andre Brown

Round 8: 10. Jonathan Stewart 9. James Jones 8. Isiah Pead 7. Owen Daniels 6. TY Hilton 5. Shane Vereen 4. Torrey Smith 3. Colin Kaepernick 2. Denario Alexander 1. Robert Griffin

Round 9: 1. Ahmad Bradshaw 2. Daryl Richardson 3. Kyle Rudolph 4. Vick Ballard 5. Stevie Johnson 6. Giovani Bernard 7. DeSean Jackson 8. Greg Jennings 9. Seattle 10. San Francisco

Round 10: 10. DeAngelo Williams 9. Ryan Williams 8. Denarius Moore 7. Matthew Stafford 6. Andrew Luck 5. Greg Olsen 4. Kenny Britt 3. Josh Gordon 2. Miles Austin 1. Tony Romo

Round 11: 1. Emanuel Sanders 2. Houston 3. Denver 4. Jonathan Franklin 5. Mike Williams 6. Green Bay 7. Eli Manning 8. Bryce Brown 9. Jared Cook 10. Lance Moore

Round 12: 10. Sidney Rice 9. Mark Ingram 8. Bernard Pierce 7. Fred Jackson 6. Jeremy Maclin 5. Andy Dalton 4. Pittsburgh 3. Anquan Boldin 2. Mikel Leshoure 1. Chris Givens

Round 13: 1. Chicago 2. DeAndre Hopkins 3. Ben Rothlisberger 4. Sam Bradford 5. Cincinnati 6. Ben Tate 7. St. Louis 8. Baltimore 9. Joe Flacco 10. Mohamed Sanu

Round 14: 10. Michael Bush 9. Jacquizz Rodgers 8. Carson Palmer 7. Shonn Greene 6. Mike Goodson 5. Michael Turner 4. Brian Hartline 3. Martellus Bennett 2. Michael Vick 1. Daniel Thomas

Round 15: 1. Stephen Gostowski 2. Antonio Brown 3. Robert Turbin 4. Matt Prater 5. Brandon Myers 6. Kendall Wright 7. Santonio Holmes 8. Jermichael Finely 9. Fred Davis 10. Brandon Pettigrew 

Round 16: 10. Matt Bryant 9. Blair Walsh 8. Justin Tucker 7. Sebastian Janikowski 6. Phil Dawson 5. Randy Bullock 4. Rueben Randle 3. David Akers 2. Josh Brown 1. Santana Moss

Reaction
Round 1: The first four picks were pretty much common sense but then at five Team 5 took CJ Spiller instead of Jamal Charles which might be a little risky. I like Spiller a lot this year, but I also like Charles a lot so at that pick it is basically a toss up to me. Once we get to pick eight, we see the first real “reach” of the draft. I would have much rather had Alfred Morris or Ray Rice on my team over LeSean McCoy at pick eight for two reasons. The first being that McCoy had a tough year last year with injuries, but when he was healthy he produced. The second being that Bryce Brown looks like a very capable back up which we saw last year when he got a couple starts in McCoy’s absence. In his first two starts, he had 347 yards and 4 TDs, so I might expect in Chip Kelly’s new fast paced offense for Brown to steal a bit more work from McCoy.

Round 2: In round two we saw Team 10 go with a different draft strategy and take Calvin Johnson and then Aaron Rodgers, so he is without a RB after the first two rounds. However, he has the consensus number 1 ranked WR and QB so I cannot say it was a bad pick. Team 1, in my mind, got great value with Maurice Jones-Drew at the last pick in the second round. He has the potential to be “Comeback Player of the Year.” Jacksonville does not have much offense besides MJD, so he will be used a lot. If he doesn’t get injured, he can return to his days as a high first round pick.

Round 3: After drafting two RBs, Team 1 opted to take the best TE in the league. A good pick for me because if you don’t get Jimmy Graham, then you should wait a few more rounds for a TE. I have to say that Chris Johnson is not third round value for me. I would pass him up and take Demaryius Thomas, who went with the next pick, every time. Also, Team 9 decided to take a third RB with Monte Ball, which seems okay but I might suggest trying to load up on WR and take a chance on a lower ranked RB that has upside to be your third back.

Round 4: This round was WR heavy which makes sense because most teams want to start with drafting from the short stack of RBs. This left Team 5 with a tough decision, in which he made the wrong one. Taking Darren McFadden is always bad news. He is talented and can put up good numbers, but let me tell you that he WILL get injured again. He never fails to go down and miss games which does not help you fantasy roster. I would stay away as long as I can.

Round 5: In this round, most teams should be looking for a QB who has fallen or a flex player. We see mostly flex picks in round 5, three of which are new starters on their teams. Christ Ivory gets a unique opportunity to be the number one guy in New York. With their passing game as brutal as it is, he is going to be a decently productive back. Lamar Miller is also ready to take over as a starter. He is talented and will get carries just like Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown did back in the day. The most interesting pick is David Wilson, who concerns me because his backup, Andre Brown, might vulture goal line TDs. As long as Wilson doesn’t sprain an ankle during his backflip TD celebration, he will stay productive. Good value for all three of them.

Round 6: Team 7 got a steal with Le’Veon Bell. I do not know if he will be there in the sixth come draft day because I expect more and more people will catch on to his skill. Pittsburgh is going to run the ball a lot and Bell basically has the starting role locked up. As rookie, you might have some concern, but just take a look at what Doug Martin did last year and your concern will be relieved.

Round 7: Pierre Garcon, Pierre Garcon, Pierre Garcon. Steal. I love Garcon this year. Alfred Morris is going to run the ball well which will open up the field for Garcon to catch a lot of balls. He has the talent to become an elite WR in the NFL someday if he does not get injured like last year. In round 7 if Garcon is there, take him. I may not be comfortable having him as my second WR, but as a flex play, I would love to have him.

Round 8-15: Round 9, we saw the first defense come off the board, which is about where I would expect. However, I wouldn’t advise taking a defense that early unless you are completely satisfied with your team in that round, and there are no really appealing options. Do not pass up a RB or WR that you like for a defense, just because you don’t have one yet. In round 10, we see two late QBs, Matthew Stafford and Andrew Luck get taken. Somebody got lucky because in round 10, I would jump so fast to take either of them. Depends on your league, but I wouldn’t expect them to be there in the tenth. Some fliers like Emanuel Sanders, DeAndrew Hopkins, and Michael Turner (why not? he might end up on a team) round out this draft before we get to the last round which as you can see is majority kickers. Wait for the last round for kickers!

Now you know a little about where guys are most likely to fall on draft day. Depending on who you like or who your league mates like, players are going to be taken earlier than you think sometimes, but there will be guys that will fall later than you think as well. Keep doing your mock drafts to get the best feel for where you are going to expect players to come off the board.

If you are in a dynasty league or are interested in the best rookies for this season, I am working on an analysis of my top 10 rookies for the 2013 season. Check back Friday or Saturday to read up on those first year impact players. I’ll post the link on twitter as well, so follow me @rlocks24. As always, email me with questions, comments, or suggestions for topics you want me to write about.

2013 Fantasy Football Rankings

Enjoy these rankings, and use them for your mock drafts to see how it works out! Comment with feedback about guys that should be higher or lower. E-mail me with any questions about my rankings and I will be more than happy to explain why I ranked them there. Have fun! ***Rankings are subject to change from now until draft day.

Come back on Wednesday to check out the mock draft I did with a few of my friends!

($) = Sleeper  (*) = Injury Prone

Quarterbacks

1. Aaron Rodgers, GB, 4

#1 QB, Aaron Rodgers

2. Drew Brees, NO, 7

3. Peyton Manning, DEN, 9

4. Cam Newton, CAR, 4

5. Tom Brady, NE, 10

6. Matt Ryan, ATL, 6

7. Matthew Stafford, DET, 9

8. Russell Wilson, SEA, 12

9. Colin Kaepernick, SF, 9

10. Andrew Luck, IND, 8

11. Robert Griffin III, WAS, 5 (*)

12. Tony Romo, DAL, 11

13. Eli Manning, NYG, 9

14. Andy Dalton, CIN, 12 ($)

15. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT, 5

16. Sam Bradford, STL, 11 ($)

17. Joe Flacco, BAL, 8

18. Josh Freeman, TB, 5

19. Matt Schaub, HOU, 8

20. Ryan Tannehill, MIA, 6

21. Michael Vick, PHI, 12 (*)

22. Carson Palmer, ARI, 9

23. Jay Cutler, CHI, 8

24. Phillip Rivers, SD, 8

25. Alex Smith, KC, 10

Running Backs

1. Adrian Peterson, MIN, 5

2. Arian Foster, HOU, 8

#4 RB, Doug Martin

3. Marshawn Lynch, SEA, 12

4. Doug Martin, TB, 5

5. Jamal Charles, KC, 10

6. CJ Spiller, BUF, 12

7. Trent Richardson, CLE, 10

8. Alfred Morris, WAS, 5

9. Ray Rice, BAL, 8

10. Steven Jackson, ATL, 6

11. Stevan Ridley, NE, 10

12. LeSean McCoy, PHI, 12 (*)

13. Matt Forte, CHI, 8

14. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC, 9 ($,*)

15. Frank Gore, SF, 9

16. Chris Johnson, TEN, 8

17. Monte Ball, DEN, 9

18. David Wilson, NYG, 9

19. Darren Sproles, NO, 7

20. LeVeon Bell, PIT, 5 ($)

21. Lamar Miller, MIA, 6 ($)

22. Reggie Bush, DET, 9

23. DeMarco Murray, DAL, 11 (*)

24. Darren McFadden, OAK, 7 (*)

25. Chris Ivory, NYJ, 10

26. Ben Green-Ellis, CIN, 12

27. Eddie Lacy, GB, 4

28. Ahmad Bradshaw, IND, 8

29. Vick Ballard, IND, 8

30. Ryan Matthews, SD, 8

31. Rashard Mendenhall, ARI, 9 (*)

32. Shane Vereen, NE, 10

33. Andre Brown, NYG, 9

34. Giovani Bernard, CIN, 12 ($)

35. Mark Ingram, NO, 7

36. Bryce Brown, PHI, 12

37. Jonathan Stewart, CAR, 4

38. DeAngelo Williams, CAR, 4

39. Jonathan Franklin, GB, 4

40. Mikel Leshoure, DET, 9

41. Isaiah Pead, STL, 11 ($) - Suspended first 4 games

42. Daryl Richardson, STL, 11

43. Ryan Williams, ARI, 9

44. Joseph Randle, DAL, 11 ($)

45. Bernard Pierce, BAL, 8

46. Ben Tate, HOU, 8

47. Jaquizz Rodgers, ATL, 6

48. Fred Jackson, BUF, 12

49. Ronnie Hillman, DEN, 9

50. Michael Bush, CHI, 8

Wide Receiver

1. Calvin Johnson, DET, 9

2. AJ Green, CIN, 12

3. Dez Bryant, DAL, 11

4. Brandon Marshall, CHI, 8

#8 WR, Larry Fitzgerald

5. Demaryius Thomas, DEN, 9

6. Julio Jones, ATL, 6

7. Vincent Jackson, TB, 5

8. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI, 9

9. Randall Cobb, GB, 4 ($)

10. Percy Harvin, SEA, 12

11. Roddy White, ATL, 6

12. Andre Johnson, HOU, 8 (*)

13. Wes Welker, DEN, 9

14. Victor Cruz, NYG, 9

15. Reggie Wayne, IND, 8

16. Jordy Nelson, GB, 4

17. Marques Colston, NO, 7

18. Danny Amendola, NE, 10 (*)

19. Antonio Brown, PIT, 5 ($)

20. Mike Wallace, MIA, 6

21. Steve Smith, CAR, 9

22. Dwayne Bowe, KC, 10

23. Pierre Garcon, WAS, 5 ($,*)

24. James Jones, GB, 4

25. Hakeem Nicks, NYG, 9

26. Cecil Shorts, JAC, 9 (*)

27. Eric Decker, DEN, 9

28. Tavon Austin, STL, 11 ($)

29. Torrey Smith, BAL, 8

30. Greg Jennings, MIN, 5

31. Anquan Boldin, SF, 9

32. TY Hilton, IND, 8

33. Stevie Johnson, BUF, 12

34. Miles Austin, DAL, 11

35. DeSean Jackson, PHI, 12 (*)

36. Danario Alexander, SD 8

37. Josh Gordon, CLE, 10 ($)

38. Mike Williams, TB, 5

39. Jeremy Maclin, PHI, 12

40. Emmanuel Sanders, PIT, 5

41. Denarius Moore, OAK, 7

42. Lance Moore, NO, 7

43. DeAndre Hopkins, HOU, 8 ($)

44. Kenny Britt, TEN, 8

45. Sidney Rice, SEA, 12

46. Chris Givens, STL, 11

47. Aaron Dobson, NE, 10 ($)

48. Kendall Wright, TEN, 8

49. Santonio Holmes, NYJ, 10

50. Alshon Jeffery, CHI, 8

Tight Ends

1. Jimmy Graham, NO, 7

2. Tony Gonzalez, ATL, 6

#1 TE, Jimmy Graham

3. Rob Gronkowski, NE, 10 (*)

4. Jason Witten, DAL, 11

5. Vernon Davis, SF, 9

6. Dennis Pitta, BAL, 8

7. Owen Daniels, HOU, 8

8. Brandon Meyers, NYG, 9 ($)

9. Kyle Rudolph, MIN, 5

10. Greg Olsen, CAR, 4

11. Antonio Gates, SD, 8

12. Martellus Bennett, CHI, 8

13. Jared Cook, STL, 11

14. Dustin Keller, MIA, 6

15. Brandon Pettigrew, DET, 9

16. Fred Davis, WAS, 5

17. Jermichael Finley, GB, 4 (*)

18. Rob Housler, ARI, 9 ($)

19. Jordan Cameron, CLE, 10

20. Coby Fleener, IND, 8

21. Jermaine Gresham, CIN, 12

22. Tyler Eifert, CIN, 12

23. Dwayne Allen, IND, 8

24. Jacob Tamme, DEN, 9

25. Joel Dressen, DEN, 9

Defenses

1. Seattle, 12

2. San Francisco, 9

#1 DEF, Seattle Seahawks

3. Houston, 8

4. Denver, 9

5. Chicago, 8

6. Cincinnati, 12

7. Pittsburgh, 5

8. New England, 10

9. Green Bay, 4

10. St. Louis, 11

11. Baltimore, 8

12. Miami, 6

13. Dallas, 11

14. San Diego, 8

15. New York G, 9

16. Tampa Bay, 5

17. Minnesota, 5

18. Atlanta, 6

19. Cleveland, 10

20. Carolina, 4

21. Arizona, 9

22. Washington, 5

23. New York J, 10

24. Kansas City, 10

25. Detroit, 9

Kickers

1. Stephen Gostkowski, NE, 10

2. Blair Walsh, MIN, 5

#9 K, Sebastian Janikowski

3. Matt Bryant, ATL, 6

4. Matt Prater, DEN, 9

5. Justin Tucker, BAL, 8

6. Phil Dawson, SF, 9

7. Josh Brown, NYG, 9

8. Randy Bullock, HOU, 8

9. Sebastian Janikowski, OAK, 7

10. David Akers, DET, 9

11. Greg Zuerlein, STL, 11

12. Dan Bailey, DAL, 11

13. Garrett Hartley, NO, 7

14. Steven Hauschka, SEA, 12

15. Robbie Gould, CHI, 8

Pizza... check. Jersey... check. Draft board... check. Prepared... better be checked

Do you feel it? The butterflies in your stomach that you get right before a big game, or when you go on a first date with a girl you really like. Do you see it? The light at the end of the tunnel, land when you are stranded out at sea. Fantasy Football Draft Day is so close I can taste it. Maybe it is just my hyperactive senses, but I can see the light and feel the butterflies in my stomach. I apologize for the length of this article, but these butterflies get my adrenaline pumping, and I hope yours is too because I want you to stick around for this whole post.

Adrian Peterson should run away with the number 1
overall pick in every league

For most of you, draft day is in about 6 weeks or so, but the exact date does not matter because it is never too early to start preparing. Last year, I studied numbers and stats like a mathematician, read articles and magazines like a librarian, and did more mock drafts than Michael Jackson had plastic surgeries. And guess what I was doing at the end of the season? Celebrating a championship.

There is no one way to win your league or one strategy to go by on draft day. It is all about adjusting, round to round. If you are targeting, say, CJ Spiller with the 7th pick, and he goes 5th, you have to be able to stay calm and weigh your other options. The same goes with in season moves (pick-ups, trades) from week to week. Last season I used a late first round pick on Matthew Stafford (smart, right?). I soon shipped him off and boarded the “Luck” train, which I then got off in a trade along with Marshawn Lynch for Drew Brees and Shonn Greene. Could I have won with either Stafford or Luck and Lynch instead of Brees and Greene? Possibly, but last year I felt like I had a better chance with a top tier quarterback. That is why I drafted Stafford in the first round, because I thought he was moving into the top tier of QBs. This proves that you have to adjust year to year as well. Last season, Aaron Rodgers went 1st overall, followed by three more QBs in the first round because we thought there was not much depth. Turns out there was and that’s why running backs look to be the golden snitch of this year’s draft.

Last year we saw the emergence of Russell Wilson, Robert Griffin III, Andrew Luck, and Colin Kaepernick. We do not have a question mark over Peyton Manning’s head, Matt Ryan finally broke out as a fantasy stud, and we still have Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Cam Newton who we know will produce, so in a 10-team league, I would not advise against being the last to take your starting QB.

Before I go on and tell you how you should draft to have the best chance in becoming a champion, let me say this, if it does not work out for you, it is not my fault. You still need to pick the players you like, and they have to perform. I can tell you who I like and who I don’t, as well as tell you how to draft your roster, but in the end it is all up to you. I am just the angel on your shoulder giving you good advice, but maybe to some of you I am the devil on your other shoulder giving you bad advice. Either way, I won’t stop giving advice, so here we go (yes, a dog did just bring me a beer).

As I have mentioned just a bit ago, running backs are gold in this year’s draft, and you have to get one early. That is worth repeating in caps, YOU NEED TO GET A RUNNING BACK EARLY. And not even just early, but often because there are not many top tier backs this year. I counted up and I am drafting two backs out of a pool of only 15. So that means in the first two rounds, your best strategy would be to go running back and then running back again. If you don’t, then you may as well stock up on receivers and later on draft some young backs (Eddie Lacy, Le’Veon Bell, Lamar Miller, etc) who have a chance at breaking out. We have seen the depth at quarterback and there is even more depth at wide receiver with the way teams throw the ball nowadays. I will be releasing my official rankings on Monday, and maybe then you will see exactly what I mean about depth.

There are other strategies that have worked for people in the past but they are all hit or miss. One is drafting the best quarterback early, which last year we saw as not actually the best option. The thought process behind drafting one of the best quarterbacks is that they score the most fantasy points, but at the same time, you have to sacrifice a top end running back for a top end quarterback. I am not willing to go through that risk early in my draft because I would be very satisfied with Matt Ryan on my roster as a 5th or 6th round pick, and having Trent Richardson and Steven Jackson as my two backs, instead of Aaron Rodgers, Darren McFadden, and Reggie Bush.

Another strategy is going with wide receivers early on, which also can work, but again its about timing and picking the guys that are going to perform. Wide receivers are probably the most reliable position because not many of them get hurt, and in any given game a 2nd or 3rd string WR can pop up on the scoreboard for six points. You don’t see many 2nd or 3rd string running backs scoring touchdowns because the starter takes the majority of the snaps. There are often three WR on the field at once, so by taking Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, and Randall Cobb while fighting it out with David Wilson as your number one RB, you are setting yourself up for some nice points at WR and taking a big risk at RB. That is okay, but the safest and most efficient strategy to draft is to pick from the shallow pool of RBs so you don’t end up drowning in it.

Any strategy is alright and can work, but let’s look at if you take two RBs with your first two picks. We’ll say we have Doug Martin and Stevan Ridley. In any week, these two backs should average about 22 fantasy points combined. It is much easier, like I said, to see a receiver like Cecil Shorts have a double digit fantasy game than someone like Monte Ball. So then you go on to take Vincent Jackson and Jordy Nelson as your two WRs who just like running backs should average you about 22 points combined. Grab Darren Sproles in the fifth as a flex who I would expect 8 points out of, and Matt Ryan in the sixth who should average you about 17. A tight end should lock up 8 points a week, your defense and kicker around the same. If you were doing the math (correctly), you would add up your starting roster to get you 93 fantasy points. I looked back at my match ups in my league last season and 93 points would have won me ten regular season games, which easily gets me into the playoffs.

For me, the whole key is balance. Say it with me, balance. You don’t want one position too weak or one position too strong. I think if you have a balanced roster, you can never go wrong because here is the thing, guys are going to have bad weeks. It’s as simple as that, but then there are also going to be guys who have really good weeks. You just need to have a little luck on your side when one position has a below average week, hopefully another position makes up those points by having an above average week. If your team is balanced then your worry about having one position being too weak, every week, is minimized. And that is really what fantasy is all about, minimizing risk and maximizing reward, along with some luck, skill, research, etc. But you have to be able to figure out on draft day who is going to give you the most reward while keeping the risk small.

It is basically all a big puzzle. I am not a fan of puzzles, but filling up a fantasy football roster is one of my favorite things to do. In a standard league you have 16 slots on your roster including bench players, or 16 pieces to your puzzle. Usually, the best way to do a puzzle is to find all the pieces that have a straight edge on them because you know that they are the border of your puzzle. Those pieces are your running backs, the ones you try to find first, and the foundation of your roster that is going to keep your whole team balanced. From the border of your puzzle, you want to work your way towards the middle until you are finally complete and it looks just like the front of the box. This is where you pick up your wide outs, quarterback, tight end, defense, kicker, and bench players in any order as long as it is a value pick. A “value” pick is something like taking Jimmy Graham in the fifth when he probably should have been gone in the third. And the front of the box is your preparation. You need to do everything you can to prepare for your draft, and have a vision of what your team is going to look like when you are finished drafting.

Now, sometimes you can’t make two pieces of your puzzle fit, but that is alright because eventually it all comes together. Maybe you can’t find a piece that matches up with another piece, but it doesn’t matter because you can move on to a few different pieces and make them fit. If during your draft you are targeting someone special and he gets taken by the team right in front of you, do NOT panic. It is okay because all you have to do is put that piece down and move on to a different one. And guess what, the puzzle always gets complete in the end, just like your team will be when your 16 rounds of ups and downs, happiness and sadness, laughing and crying, tranquility and aggression, is over.

The last thing I want to talk about are late round “fliers.” This term, “flier” is used to describe a player who you draft in the later rounds and has a lot potential to be a fantasy sleeper, but they can also not work out at all, and you end up having to drop them in week 3. Taking these “fliers” can be a great strategy in the closing rounds. It might just be a pet peeve of mine, but I want to warn you by telling you not to take too many. Don’t start at round 11 and take five fliers in a row until round 16 where you take your kicker. Side note: Take your kicker in the last round of your draft. Period. Back to fliers, taking one or two of them when they are available and you feel confident in them is okay. But don’t use the following statement as an excuse to take Mr. Irrelevant of the 2013 NFL Draft: “Because he is a flier, I think he’s going to break out.” No. The moral of this paragraph is to be prepared in the late rounds just as much, if not more than the early rounds, because these are the players that you are going to need when injuries happen, during bye weeks, or when the guy you picked in the 15th round is Randall Cobb and has an unexpected unbelievable year.

To review the main points that you need to live by for the upcoming days until draft day and on draft day itself are the following: 1. Be prepared for your draft. 2. Running backs early and often. 3. Quarterback and wide receiver is deep. 4. Don’t take too many fliers, make sure you are prepared for the late rounds. 5. Kicker in the last round no matter what.

I hope you gained a lot of knowledge from reading this and now it is time to get to work. Get going on doing mock drafts just to feel out when players are going and to figure out what kind of strategy you want to use when it comes time for the real thing. As I said before, I will be posting my official rankings on Monday, so stop back in and check those out. I would love for any of you to leave a comment about different strategies to use, which one is your favorite, or which one has worked for you in the past. As always you can email me or tweet at me with any kind of questions and I will get back to you with my answer.

Have fun when preparing for your draft, that is what it’s all about. And of course, good luck!